Have We Hit The Bottom?

Well, we are all hoping so! I think there are tentitive signs that we are into the phase of bouncing along on the bottom of the curve. From my companies experience we are, in terms of turnover, about the same as last year, which we consider a really good result although it's frustrating not seeing our business grow year on year (A new experience for us!).

I think there are signs the summer will see some stabilisation and then perhaps some growth right at the end of the year. It all depends on the unemployment rate and if the various stimulas plans are effective. Obviosly we don't want a reflationary boom in 2010 and to that end government and bank of England policy will have to be timely but from my perspective I think the G20 meeting hit the nail on the head and set a framework for lifting the world out of the credit crunch. I find the IMF to be persimistic and I don't understand why they seem keen to add to the bad news which everyone is faced with on Television. It is so important to maintain confidence during a downturn. As FDR said while implimenting the New Deal in the 30's "we have nothing to fear except fear itself" and as JM Keynes said in a slightly different way that recessions can be self reinforcing. A free press is a wonderful thing and must always be defended however the freedom they enjoy must come with responsibility and I am always hoping they will start to report the economy in a more balanced and responsible way. Perhaps too much to hope for!

Still back to the main topic - I think retail sales might be down a bit in April after being a little higher in March. (see end of this article)

Still the month is not over yet and we will see. We might yet see a little late surge to make up for a weaker month thus far.